在全球能源转型加速、环保标准日益严格、产业升级浪潮迭起以及我国供给侧结构性改革深入实施的背景下,乙烯产业链正面临着巨大的变革和重塑。综述了乙烯产业链发展现状,并从政策、需求、供应3个方面分析了乙烯产业链发展趋势,随着“油转化”、炼化一体化的深入推进,产业供需格局已发生根本性转变,乙烯产业链总体向原料多元化(降低生产成本)、产品高端化(提升产品附加值)发展转型,上游乙烷/混合轻烃裂解法占比逐步提升,下游向聚烯烃弹性体(POE)、超高分子量聚乙烯(UHMWPE)、光伏级乙烯-醋酸乙烯酯共聚物(EVA)等高端化工材料延伸趋势明显。针对国内乙烯产业链转型升级,从产业布局、企业转型、科技创新、国际拓展4个方面提出了发展建议。

Ethylene,as one of the cornerstones in the chemical industry,boasts a wide range of downstream applications.In the context of globally accelerating energy transition,increasingly stringent environmental protection standards,frequent industrial upgrading waves,and the in-depth implementation of China’s supply-side structural reform,China’s ethylene industrial chain is undergoing significant transformation and reshaping.This paper summarizes the current status of China’s ethylene industrial chain,and analyzes its development trends from three aspects such as policy,demand,and supply.With the deepening of the “oil-to-chemicals” transformation and refining-chemical integration,the industrial supply-demand layout has undergone fundamental changes.The ethylene industrial chain is generally transitioning towards diversifying raw materials (to reduce production cost) and upgrading products (to enhance product added value).In the upstream,the proportion of ethane/mixed light hydrocarbon cracking methods is gradually increasing,while in the downstream,more ethylene is being used to produce high-end chemical materials such as polyolefin elastomer,ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene and photovoltaic-grade ethylene-vinyl acetate.Furthermore,this paper proposes some development suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of China’s ethylene industrial chain from four aspects,including industrial layout,enterprise transformation,technological innovation,and international development.