为推动中国氢能产业绿色化发展,研究如何促进可再生能源电解水制氢(绿氢)代替化石能源制氢具有重要现实意义。通过卫星遥感数据获取中国各个省份的可再生资源禀赋氢,并在考虑可再生能源波动情况下构建了可再生能源电解水制氢仿真模型,可以探究各个省份可再生能源电解水制氢成本。最终与当地煤制氢成本做比较,在考虑技术进步以及不同碳交易价格水平下分析了中国未来各个时间节点绿氢对灰氢的替代潜力,并给出我国未来应如何发展绿氢的建议。

Studying how to promote the substitution of fossil fuel-based hydrogen production with renewable energy-driven water electrolysis hydrogen production (green hydrogen) is of significant practical importance for driving the green development of China's hydrogen energy industry.Through utilizing satellite remote sensing data to assess the renewable resource potential of various provinces in China and constructing a simulation model for renewable energy-driven water electrolysis hydrogen production under considering the fluctuation of renewable energy sources,it becomes possible to explore the cost of water electrolysis hydrogen production by renewable energy sources in different provinces,which is compared with the local cost of coal-based hydrogen production.Under the premise of considering technological advancements and different levels of carbon trading prices,the potential for green hydrogen to replace grey hydrogen in different time periods in China is analyzed,and some insights into how China should develop green hydrogen in the future are suggested.

时伟(1983-),男,学士,高级经济师,主要研究方向为电力系统发展战略规划。