分析了1961—2019年世界肥料产业的发展历程,发现肥料生产及消费数量仍处于上升阶段,但速度有所放缓。发展中国家在肥料产业中占据的地位越来越高,肥料生产、消费区域发生了较大转移,尤其是氮肥、磷肥逐渐转向资源丰富以及需求量大的区域,钾肥生产区域布局并无太大变化。从肥料产品结构变化来看,不同国家差异显著,发展中国家逐渐由单质肥料向多元复合肥料的方向发展,而发达国家发展趋势相反。从未来发展趋势来看,肥料需求仍将上升,但受资源和能源形势、环保政策以及国际贸易形势影响,生产布局会进一步调整。

According to the statistics of International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) from 1961 to 2019,it is found that world fertilizer production and consumption is still in the rising stage,but the speed has slowed down.Developing countries are playing an increasingly important role in global fertilizer industry.Fertilizer production and consumption areas have changed greatly,especially the production of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer have gradually shifted to the areas with rich resources and large demand.The distribution of potash fertilizer production areas has hardly changed.From the changes of proportion of fertilizer products,significant difference is found in different countries.Developing countries have gradually developed from single-element fertilizer to multivariate compound fertilizer,and developed countries have shown an adverse direction.It is predicted that fertilizer demand will continue to rise,but the production layout will be further adjusted due to the impact from resources and energy situation,environmental protection policy and international trade situation.

江敬安(1998-),男,硕士生,研究方向为植物营养,785082353@qq.com。