为分析页岩气开发项目中的社会风险成因，保障项目建设和运营，提出了一种全生命周期视角下考虑耦合效应的动态风险研究方法。首先，从经济、政治、环境、社会等维度对页岩气开发项目进行分阶段的风险识别，并结合系统动力学的思想建立风险流图；然后以G1法与熵值法结合的方式确定权重，进而分析变量间的函数关系；最后以某页岩气开发项目为例，对模型进行动态仿真分析，计算各系统间的耦合度。结果表明，环境风险和政治风险是社会风险的外部关键致因，土地征用和社区关系是社会风险的内部关键致因。并据此提出风险应对策略，旨在为页岩气开发项目建立社会风险防控措施提供理论参考。

In order to analyze the causes of social risks in shale gas development projects,ensure their construction and operation,a dynamic risk research method is proposed,which considers coupling effect from the perspective of whole life cycle.Firstly,the risk factors of shale gas development projects are identified by stages from economic,political,environmental and social perspectives.Based on this,combined with System Dynamics (SD) theory,the risk stock flow chart is established.Then the weight is determined by the combination of G1 and entropy methods,for analyzing the relationships between variables.Finally,taking a shale gas development project as an example,dynamic simulation analysis on the model is carried out,and the coupling degree between the systems is calculated.The results show that environmental and political risks are the external key cause factors of social risks,and land acquisition and community relationship are the internal key cause factors.Thereby,some risk response strategies are proposed,aiming to provide theoretical references for the establishment of social risk prevention and control measures for shale gas development projects.

孙逸林(1996-),男,硕士生,研究方向为风险管理,18656564298,2605579718@qq.com