主要从石化产业链的环境与安全风险角度出发，分析了不同产业链对石化企业的风险影响。通过存量参数、物质参数（易燃性、易爆性、毒性）、工艺参数（温度、压力、产率、反应热）3个方面构建评估指标体系，并给予相应赋值。以丙烯腈为例，探讨丙烷两步法、丙烷一步法对产业链风险水平的影响，并通过延伸产业链计算整体风险水平。分析得出，通过延长产业链可以较好降低企业的整体风险水平。

The impact of different industrial chains on the risk of petrochemical enterprises is analyzed from the perspective of environment and safety risk.An evaluation index system is established from three aspects including stock parameters,material parameters (flammability,explosiveness,toxicity) and process parameters (temperature,pressure,yield and reaction heat),and corresponding values are assigned.Taking acrylonitrile production as an example,the influences of propane two-step route and propane one-step route on the risk level of industrial chain are explored,and the overall risk level is calculated by extending the industrial chain.It is concluded that the overall risk level of enterprises can be better reduced through extending the industrial chain.

李小斐(1984-),男,博士生,高级经济师,研究方向为环境化工、风险管理