钢铁产业是中国典型的高耗能高排放产业，也是中国节能减排的重点产业。基于CGE模型和优化模型求解了满足累积成本最小条件的钢铁生产技术路径，获得了未来钢铁行业的技术路线、能源消费和碳排放情景，并评估了不同碳税政策的影响。研究表明，未来钢铁产业的主要节能潜力在炼焦和高炉炼铁环节，吨钢能耗下降的重要驱动力是电炉钢比重的提升，而碳税政策对钢铁能耗的下降影响有限。

The steel industry is a typical energy-intensive and high-emission industry in China and also a key industry for China's energy conservation and emission reduction.Based on the CGE model and the optimization model,this paper finds the steel production technology path that meets the minimum cost of cumulative cost,obtains the future technical route,future energy consumption and carbon emission scenarios for the steel industry,and evaluates the impacts of different carbon tax policies.Research results indicate that the main energy-saving potential in the future exists in the process of coking and blast furnace iron-making in the steel industry.The main driving force for the reduction of energy consumption per ton of steel is the increase in the ratio of electric furnace steel.The carbon tax policy has a limited impact on the decline of steel energy consumption in the long term.

谢文秀(1963-),女,教授,博士,研究方向为国防经济。