针对城市能源代谢的累积流转效应和结构协同演化特征，构建基于生态网络的城市能源代谢系统模型，运用可达矩阵对城市能源活动中能源的累积流转效应进行了描述和测算。在此基础上，进一步对城市能源代谢系统中影响协同演化的关键性因素进行识别，基于哈肯模型对城市能源代谢路径中的支配要素序列进行计算。最后选取北京市进行实证检验，结果表明，煤炭在第一、二产业中的使用强度以及天然气在第二产业中的使用强度是影响北京市能源代谢系统有序演进的关键要素，其中煤炭在第二产业中的使用强度是序参量，在北京市能源代谢系统协同演化过程中起主导作用。

In view of the accumulative circulation effect and structural synergistic evolution of energy metabolism in cities,a model for urban energy metabolism system is established based on ecological network.The accumulative circulation effect of energy in urban energy activities is described and measured by using reachable matrix.On this basis,the key factors in urban energy metabolism system that influence the synergistic evolution are further identified and the dominant elements in urban energy metabolism path are calculated based on Haken's model.Finally,the empirical test is carried out in Beijing.The results show that the use intensity of coal in the primary and secondary industries and the use intensity of natural gas in the secondary industry are the key factors affecting the orderly evolution of the energy metabolism system in Beijing.Among these factors,the use intensity of coal in the secondary industry is an order parameter and plays a leading role in the synergistic evolution of the energy metabolism system in Beijing.

穆献中(1966-),男,博士,教授,研究方向为能源经济、城市经济、技术经济