2024年国内成品油市场表现较疲软:全年炼油能力维持高位,行业平均开工率小幅跌落;原油加工量整体维持稳健,成品油产量小幅下滑;成品油出口同比下降,表观消费量由增转降,但煤油消费出现明显增长;独立炼厂汽柴油产销率高位震荡,成品油商业库存整体下跌;国际原油价格波动性下降,成品油批发价格震荡走低。多项成品油相关管理办法、制度出台,规范成品油市场运行,助力炼油行业节能降碳,推动成品油行业高质量发展。2025年,国内成品油行业管理更为规范,炼油产能继续维持高位,成品油产量或将达到峰值,表观消费量延续走低态势,市场供需压力仍存,国际原油价格将整体下移,预计Brent、WTI原油均价在67~77美元/桶和62~72美元/桶的范围。

In 2024,China’s refined oil market has performed weakly.The oil refining capacity remained at a high level throughout the year,and the average operation rate fell slightly.The overall crude oil processing amount remained stable,and the output of refined oil products declined slightly.The whole year’s export of refined oil products declined year-on-year.The apparent consumption of refined oil products turned from increasing to decreasing,however,the consumption of kerosene increased significantly year-on-year.The production/sale ratios of gasoline and diesel in independent refineries have fluctuated at a high level,and the commercial inventory of refined oil products fell as a whole.The volatility of international crude oil prices weakened,and the wholesale prices of refined oil production went down in fluctuated ways.A number of management measures and regulations related to refined oil products have been issued in China to standardize the operation of the refined oil products market,help the refining industry save energy and reduce carbon dioxide emission,and promote the high-quality development of the refined oil industry.In 2025 in China,the management to the refined oil industry will be more standardized,the total refining capacity will continue to maintain a high level,the total output of refined oil products may reach a peak,the apparent consumption of refined oil products will continue to decline,and the market pressure between supply and demand will still exist.In 2025,the international crude oil price will move down as a whole,and the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to be in the range of 67-77 US dollars per barrel and 62-72 US dollars per barrel,respectively.