以制氢技术路径为例,通过Derwent专利数据库和WOS核心论文合集检索,分析技术专利和论文分布概况;然后利用文本聚类并生成ThemeScape专利地图,结合WOS论文在CiteSpace软件中的关键词聚类、突变结果,初步识别出潜在颠覆性技术路径;最后从四维度评估技术路径,以熵值法赋权指标,最终计算得出最具颠覆性技术路径。分析结果发现,电解水制氢、光催化制氢和生物质发酵制氢具备潜在颠覆性,特别是生物发酵制氢,我国可围绕制氢研究热点和研发前沿先行布局。

Taking hydrogen production technical paths as example,the distribution profile of technical patents and papers are analyzed through searching Derwent Patent Database and WOS Core Paper Collection.Then,ThemeScape patent maps are generated through text clustering.Potential disruptive technology paths are initially identified by combining the keyword clustering and mutation results of WOS papers in CiteSpace software.Finally,the technology paths are evaluated in four dimensions,the indicators are assigned with the entropy value method,and the most disruptive technology paths are obtained.It is found that electrolytic water to hydrogen,photocatalytic hydrogen production and biomass fermentation hydrogen production are potentially disruptive,especially bio-fermentation hydrogen production.China can lay out around the hotspots and R&D frontiers of hydrogen production.

朱旭敏(2001-),女,硕士生,研究方向为能源金融和碳技术经济,18801025622@163.com;冯连勇(1966-),男,博士,教授,研究方向为能源经济,通讯联系人,fenglyenergy@163.com。