随着氢能产业的不断推进,热点越来越集中在氢能制取的"源"和氢能利用的"汇"上。"氢源"从目前的3万t/a到2060年的1亿t,未来40年内的年均增长率高达22.5%;为达到绿氢规模,光伏装机需3 360 GW,体量巨大。"氢汇"主要集中在工业、交通、建筑、电力等难以脱碳的能源消费领域,应用范围十分广泛。"源"与"汇"是否匹配,将会是大规模推进氢能产业发展的核心要义。重点围绕重卡、煤化工、石油炼化、氢炼钢、燃氢电站和燃氨电站等重要高碳排放领域阐述氢能应用的逻辑及趋势,以期通过分析"氢源"和"氢汇"之间的数量关系来优化和统筹好"氢源"与"氢汇"的配置关系,突破氢能产业规模化发展的困局,促进氢能的原料和燃料属性得到更好的发展。

With continuous advancement of hydrogen energy industry,hot spots are more and more focused on the "source" of hydrogen energy production and the "terminal" of hydrogen energy utilization."Hydrogen source" will develop to 100 million tons in 2060 from current 30 000 tons per year,with an average annual growth rate of 22.5% in the next 40 years.In order to reach the green hydrogen scale,the photovoltaic capacity installed needs to be 3 360 GW."Hydrogen terminal" is mainly concentrated in energy consumption fields that are difficult to decarbonize,such as industry,transportation,construction and electric power,and has a wide range of applications.The matching between "source" and "terminal" will be the core of promoting the development of hydrogen energy industry on a large scale.This paper focuses on the logic and trend of hydrogen energy application in important high carbon emission fields such as heavy truck,coal chemical industry,petroleum refining,hydrogen steelmaking,hydrogen-fired power station and ammonia-fired power station.By analyzing the quantitative relationship between hydrogen source and hydrogen terminal,it is expected to optimize and coordinate the configuration relationship between "hydrogen source" and "hydrogen terminal",break through the dilemma of large-scale development of hydrogen energy industry,and promote the properties of hydrogen as raw materials and fuel to develop better.