从生命周期角度出发,对煤制乙二醇(coal to ethylene glycol,CTEG)路线和天然气制乙二醇(natural gas to ethylene glycol,NGTEG)路线进行全面的技术、碳排放与经济对比分析。结果表明,CTEG路线单位产品能耗是NGTEG路线的1.5倍,单位产品碳排放是NGTEG路线的1.6倍。然而,CTEG路线具有较好的经济效益,利润与投资回报率分别比NGTEG路线高1 499元/t和3.4%。通过分析原料、燃料和产品价格波动对2条路线经济竞争力的影响,发现CTEG路线受3种价格波动影响较小。CTEG路线具有良好的发展前景,但必须通过技术进步解决高能耗和高碳排放问题。

From the perspective of life cycle,a comprehensive comparison analysis involving in technical,carbon dioxide emission and economy is carried out between the coal to ethylene glycol (CTEG) route and the natural gas to ethylene glycol (NGTEG) route.The results show that the energy consumption per unit product of CTEG route is 1.5 times that of NGTEG route,and the carbon dioxide emission per unit product of CTEG route is 1.6 times that of NGTEG route.However,CTEG route has better economic benefits,and its profit and ROI are respectively 1 499 RMB/t and 3.4 percentage points higher than those of NGTEG route,respectively.The impact of price fluctuations of raw materials,fuel and products on the economic competitiveness of two routes is analyzed,it is found that CTEG route is less affected by the price fluctuations of the three types.CTEG route is expected to develop with a great momentum,but it needs to address high energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions through the technology improvement.

卜庆佳(1997-),女,硕士生田亚峻(1972-),男,博士,研究员,研究方向为能源数据与能源战略,通讯联系人,tianyajun@qibebt.ac.cn